The transition work, step by step – Part 1. Why transport requires an energy and climate focus

A prerequisite for industrialization and global trade was the simultaneous development of freight transport systems. Before the industrial era, local cargo flows were handled by carts pulled by draught animals—a method that brought very tangible local environmental problems. Until the second half of the 19th century, longer intercontinental transport was carried out exclusively by sailing ships. The introduction of steam engines, and later internal combustion engines, led to more cost-efficient transport services, which in turn enabled the development of industry and trade at local, regional, and global levels.

Initially, the new transport solutions powered by internal combustion engines appeared to be entirely emission-free, as the gaseous emissions simply vanished into the air without a trace! At first, the most noticeable environmental impact was railways and roads land use and consequently “barrier effects.” Little consideration was given to the negative impacts on human health, nature, or the environment. As the economy developed, transport activity—and traffic in general—increased across all modes of traffic. This led to a steady decline in air quality. The climate impact of transport was, for the general public, a largely unknown issue—even though the greenhouse effect had been understood since the 1820s (thanks to Fourier), and the human impact on the climate—through the burning of fossil fuels and the release of greenhouse gases—had been recognized since the late 19th century (thanks to Arrhenius).

Over time, it became impossible to ignore the negative impact of transport on health, nature, and the environment. This has led to measures such as more efficient combustion, after-treatment of fumes, cleaner fuels, and a range of regulations—including bans on toxic antifouling paints, requirements for double hulls, and more. Concrete examples include the elimination of lead in gasoline and reduced sulfur content in oil and diesel. Now, more than 150 years later, technical solutions exist that minimize traffic operations´ most negative impacts on nature, health, and the environment. However, today’s vehicles and vessels have a technical and economic lifespan of 30–50 years. This means it will take a long time before new solutions fully replaces older technology.

The most significant remaining challenge for the transport sector is its climate impact—specifically, greenhouse gas emissions and the associated reliance on fossil energy. Globally, we extract approximately 100 million barrels of oil per day. Of this, 60 million barrels are used for transport, with 25–30 million barrels dedicated to freight transport. One barrel of oil equals 159 liters. By a conservative estimate, global freight transport consumes a staggering 4 billion liters of oil every day. If we then convert this into greenhouse gas emissions—using a factor of 3.3 kg per liter—it amounts to just over 13 billion kilograms of carbon dioxide equivalents per day. While the specific details of this calculation could be debated, the point is to provide a broad overview of the scale of the challenge. Eliminating greenhouse gas emissions from global freight transport is no simple task. In Sweden alone, approximately 5.5 million liters of diesel fuel are sold annually for transport purposes. If we assume that 60% of this can be attributed to freight transport, that leaves us with 3.3 million liters to replace…

In Part 2, we will cover how to assess the current situation using NTMCalc 5.0…